Sunday, January 28, 2007

Portfolio Management

1. Asset allocation
2. Weighting shifts across major asset classes
3. Security selection within asset classes

Key theories:
- Portfolio Theory
- Capital Market Theory
- Security Valuation
- Market Efficiency
- Derivative valuation

Portfolio Management Process:
  1. Planning
  2. Execution
  3. Feedback
Planning:
  • Identify/specify investor's objectives and constraints
  • Create Investment Policy Statement
  • Form Capital Market expectations
  • Create strategic asset allocation (combine IPS with capital market expectations to determine target asset class weights; max/min; single or multi-perspective)
Execution:
  • Specific asset allocation
  • Portfolio optimization
  • Tactical asset allocation (responds to changes in short-term capital market expectations rather than investor circumstances)
Feedback:
  • Monitoring/rebalancing
  • Performance evaluation
Portfolio Management: CFA
  • CFA level III thinks in terms of Investment Policy Statement
  • IPS is client-specific summation of circumstances, goals and objectives, constraints, and policies that govern the relationship between the Advisor and the Client.
  • Components could include:
- Background/Goals (use situational and psychological profiling)
- Return objective (sufficient to meet goals; don't forget inflation)
- Risk Objective/Tolerance (driven by Willingness and Ability to take risk; also has to be in line with Return Objective)
- Constraints (TTLLU = Time Horizon, Taxes, Liquidity, Legal/regulatory, Unique circumstances)
- Asset allocation (driven by risk/return profile - diversify, optimize return for given risk level, maximize likelihood of achieving goals, etc.)
- Portfolio Monitoring/Rebalancing/Evaluation

Risk
- Measured: Variance (volatility), Standard Deviation, Value at Risk
- Willingness
- Ability
- How much risk can investor bear?
Return
- Measured: Total Return - price appreciation plus income, Nominal (unadjusted for inflation) vs Real (inflation adjusted), Pre-tax vs After-tax
- How much does investor want?
- How much does investor need? Required Return
- Specific Return Objectives? Combine return desired, needed and risk objectives into measurable total annual return specification.

Saturday, January 27, 2007

EMT

Most of these blogs from now are for my courses and my love : Portfolio Management, Financial (Equity market). Sentences are from books and from my professors'. (Ed Harding)

Finance Quote of the week:
"Diversification serves as protection against ignorance. If you want to make sure that nothing bad happens to you relative to the market, you should own everything. There is nothing wrong with that. It's a perfectly sound approach for somebody who doesn't know how to analyze businesses. Modern Portfolio Theory will tell you how to do average. But I think almost anybody can figure out how to do average in the fifth grade."
(Warren Buffet, Outstanding Investor Digest, August 8, 1996.)

Efficient Market Theory (EMT)
Eugene Fama
Fama's message: Stock prices are not predictable because the market is too efficient. In an efficient market, as information becomes available, a great many smart people ('rational profit maximizers') aggressively apply that information in a way that causes prices to adjust simultaneously, before anyone can profit. Thus, predictions of the future have no place because share prices adjust too quickly.

EMT = Random Walk Theory

Reason EMT not defensible:
- Investors are not always rational.
- Investors do not process info correctly
- Short-term yardsticks dominate (How are managers evaluated? If you are focused on short-term, how can you outperform in the long term?)

Warren Buffet on EMT: "With each investment you make, you should have the courage and the conviction to place at least 10% of your net worth in that stock."

EMT disproved
1. John Keynes
From 1927 to 1945, Keynes had responsibility for Chest Fund at King's College in Cambridge. He was a focus investor - relied on fundamental analysis to select a few stocks to buy and hold - focused on high quality companies to manage risk. Average return of 13% vs UK market return flat. Standard deviation of 29% vs UK market 12%.
2. Buffet Partnership, Ltd
3. Charles Munger Partnership
4. Sequoia Fund (Bill Ruane)
5. Lou Simpson (Geico)

Other EMT 'anomalies'
- Super Bowl effect
- Mark Twain effect ('October effect')
- January effect
- Halloween indicator (sell in May and go away)

Friday, November 17, 2006

On APEC event

From FT:

Vietnam’s economy last year grew at 8.4 per cent to $53bn, ranking it as the second-fastest growing only to China among the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum’s 21 members.

“Vietnam is an exciting place. It’s a place with an enormous future,” said Mr Bush, even as the House of Representatives slowed that progress this month by failing to pass a bill to approve permanent normal trade relations with Vietnam.

Mike Green, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said: “Other than Singapore, Vietnam is probably the Southeast Asian nation with the clearest vision of their own strategic position and national interests – particularly vis-a-vis China. It makes them an increasingly important partner for Washington.”

He added: “While Vietnam is far from being a democracy, they are taking important steps on religious freedom and economic reform.”

From AP (Yahoo Finance):

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) -- Top business leaders attending a Pacific Rim economic conference on Friday praised communist Vietnam for its stunning progress in reforming its economy a day after U.S. companies struck a flurry of investment deals worth more than $1.6 billion.
"Vietnam has demonstrated to the world its capacity for quantum leaps," said Craig Mundie, chief research and strategy officer for Microsoft Corp.

"It's clear that the government has recognized that broad-based reform and economic liberalization are essential to Vietnam's integration into the global economy," Mundie told more than 1,000 participants at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum's "CEO Summit."

Hanoi's role as host to the annual APEC summit, which brings together President Bush and 20 other leaders for a weekend meeting, gives Vietnam a rare chance to showcase its transformation from a war-ravaged backwater to a fast-growing exporter.

More than 20 years of "doi moi" market-oriented reforms have made Vietnam APEC's fastest expanding economy after China, with growth racing ahead at a 7.5 percent clip.

The CEO gathering comes fresh on the heels of two of the biggest business developments to hit Vietnam in years -- its approval for membership in the World Trade Organization and Intel Corp.'s announcement last week that it will invest $1 billion in a chip plant in Ho Chi Minh City.

More deals were announced Thursday. Energy company AES Corp. signed an agreement with state-owned Vietnam Coal & Minerals Corp., or Vinacomin, to build a coal-fired power plant at a cost of $1.4 billion, Vinacomin said. Arlington, Va.-based AES will contribute 90 percent of the capital, with the Vietnamese partner providing 10 percent.

In another deal, state-owned Vietnam National Shipping Lines, or Vinalines, agreed to form a $100 million container terminal joint venture with Seattle-based SSA Marine.

And Vietnam's Truong Thinh Co. said it had sealed a US$140-million contract with California-based NRG Resources Inc.

Executives lauded Vietnam's effort to amend its laws to conform with WTO rules as it prepares to join the Geneva-based trade group next month.

"We see great growth potential in this market," said Michael Ducker, president of FedEx Express International.

Joining the WTO "represents the emergence of Vietnam towards an economy that is very competitive," said Scott Price, chief executive of DHL Express Asia-Pacific, which on Thursday said it was investing US$14 million in Vietnam through a joint venture to upgrade its facilities and vehicles in the country.

Salvaging the current Doha round of negotiations toward a global agreement on dismantling trade barriers has been a major focus of the APEC gathering, with the 21 members pledging to consider concessions on farm trade that left the talks in a deadlock in July.

The former head of the World Trade Organization, Supachai Panitchpakdi, on Friday urged trade negotiators to lower their demands and take small steps in a bid to break the deadlock.

"I don't think the (world) can afford to stand by and let the Doha round go down the drain," Supachai, now heads of the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development, told the more than 1,000 business executives.

"So let's do quiet diplomacy. Let's achieve a little bit and then move on, achieve a little bit and then move on," he said. "Development is the middle name of the Doha agenda, so don't shortchange the whole round of negotiations of development."

Spurred by exhortations from APEC, the WTO's 149 members met Thursday in Geneva for the first time in four months to discuss the possibility of resuming talks.

"Clearly, business and industry want the removal of obstacles, so with the Doha round, business is saying, 'Yeah, we're ready. We're just waiting for governments to get their act together,'" said DHL's Price.

While executives say regulations still slow down business in Vietnam, foreign investment is growing as the economy opens up.

Vietnam's thinnest times came after the Vietnam War ended in 1975 and the communists united the country. Cut off by an economic embargo, the economy stagnated under a rigid, centrally planned system. People lined up to wait for rice and other goods and faced police action if they sold anything on the free market.

The country still faces daunting obstacles, however, in building up infrastructure and training its workers for the newly capitalist-style economy.

"New challenges from terrorism, pandemics, natural disasters and technological inequality threaten the sustainability of regional prosperity," said Vu Tien Loc, president of the APEC CEO summit and chairman of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry. "We believe that worldwide prosperity can only be achieved through shared opportunities and shared development."





Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Vietnam's booming stock exchange attracts attention at APEC summit - article from IHT 14/11

The market is emblematic of Vietnam's overall economy: energetic, fast-growing and still in the early stages of its development. It poses greater risks to investors than a more advanced economy, but also the promise of great returns.

"You'd have to go quite a long way to find a stock market that's grown 10 times in 10 months, even though it started from a very small base," said Dominic Scriven of Dragon Capital, which manages an US$860 million investment fund in Vietnam. "And it probably will have grown 15 times by the end of the year."

When it opened six years ago, the market was the laughingstock of Southeast Asia. Few companies were listed, and foreign investors kept their distance. But it has taken off in the last couple of years, attracting the attention of investment firms such as Credit Suisse and Citigroup.

"Vietnam is beginning to deliver on a decade of promise," a recent Merrill Lynch report said.

Vietnam has approved a new securities law that Scriven called "a huge leap forward." Effective Jan. 1, it will clarify investment rules and bring more transparency to the market, though still not as much as in developed countries.

Thursday, November 09, 2006

Vietnam's agreement on banking in the accession to WTO

Vietnam currently limits foreign banks to a minorirty shareholding position of 49%, but allows bank branches. Vietnam only allows foreign securities companies to open representative offices. Our (US) WTO bilateral market access agreement with Vietnam includes the following improvements:

As of April 1, 2007, U.S. and other foreign banks will be able to establish 100% foreign-invented subsidiaries. As Vietnamese legal entities, these subsidiaries will receive non-discriminatory ("national") treatment upon accession. U.S> banks will be able to establish a 100% foreign-invested bank subsidiary, take unlimited local currency deposits from legal entities, and issue credit cards.

As of date of Vietnam's accession, foreign securities firms will be able to open joint ventures with up to 49% foreign ownership. After five years, foreigners will be able to own 100% of securities firms and will be able to branch into Vietnam for some securities avtivities (asset management, advisory, and settlement and cleairng services).

Foreign-invested firms established in Vietnam will be afforded national treatments, across all other financial services sub-sectors.

Cross-border market access commitments will be comparable, or superior, to those of OECD countries (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development).