Apple WWMC 2011

From the time of my analysis (or or group project) of Apple in fall 2010, Apple has made a big leap with iPad2 and now with iCloud, iOS5 and all the things it has just announced last Monday, June 6th, 2011.

There's not a lot of things to talk about iPad2 for an 'Innovator' group. Yet, there are more and more people who own Apple's product. With iMessages and a lot of features that will be launched in fall this year, there will be a big group of people joining the club. Especially, when iMessage is free, there is no fee anymore to operators. People will just use it because their friends use it. iMessage is default when you send an sms. How much space will be left for eBuddy XMS and WhatsApp? Just space for people to send messages across platform (iOS to Android or Blackberry). It would be interesting to see the effect of iMessage in increasing iPhone users. Probably that is why Apple plans to separate the launch of iOS5 with the expected iPhone 5.

The analysis that we wrote about focus a big part on relationship between Apple and operators. However, once they have become big, it's the other way around; operators need them to attract more customers. The other relationship that Apple has is with third-party developers. A lot of people use iPhone because of nice, cool apps that are designed for iPhone. Now, Apple knows what are interesting to offer to its customers and take a big hit to the developers. iCloud will be there to replace Dropbox, iMessage to replace WhatsApp and the new successful eBuddy's product, eBuddy XMS, Instapper, Camera+ will lose its stand as well. The real threat that these companies should foresee is its dependence on Apple's platform (or any kind) to gain users and revenues, consequently.

Apple's stock price is way there to increase. Thus, for a time horizon of 1-3 years, I would buy its stocks. However, for a pension fund, I am not sure. For that time horizon, probably people will again dump Apple's products, becoming anti-Apple or like what they did before with Apple I and II. Apple now offers a lot of value to its customers. The chance is just that it will be dominant in the technology consumer market. Once, when people only owns iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, using iTunes, iCloud, it will have all the right to set the price to the market and control its relationship with all types of suppliers.

I am just here in one of the exciting time and have a little knowledge to think it will be interesting to see what will be going on in till the time I retire.

24.2.2011 - ABS trivial notes

- What Google is trying to do with their Android and mobile phone? Are they going to be a new Microsoft with their large market share on phone as Microsoft did with their Windows before? Are they only getting money from search or from something else that they are developing but not offering or exploiting yet?

- Again, if Apple loses its popularity, will the fate of its iPhone be like the fate of Apple I and II?

- Will Microsoft become obsolete in 10 years time? What can they do with a large market share getting from Nokia but whose users possess basic phones?

- What are revenues from Google, Facebook? Taken into account that more than 90% of their revenues are from advertising, how large is the yearly global advertising budget? For small companies, what are their shares in the market? Where does the advertising budget come from? Manufacturing companies like Unilever, entertainment (movies, music) or services. Without companies which produce goods for the society, how much the advertising budget will decrease? 

- How about energy? What can people with energy in 10 years? What if plants can be grown in the ocean, if energy from waves can be used much better (how much energy from the sea can we use. Surely, a very little part of it is being used now), and if there is technology to desalt water from the sea to provide clean water for the world?

Somehow, the world has been changing too fast. There are lots of technology developed for the fun and cool of its, not for the necessity. And in some part of the world, people are richer than what they expect, yet in another part, there is still poverty, hunger and no education for children...

Apple and iPhone, a look from a technology life cycle

In 1984, Apple introduced the Apple I, the first line of computers that changed Apple and the computer industry. From that on, not a lot of people had heard of Apple computer but instead Compaq, Toshiba, Sony, Dell,... Sales of Apple's PC and Mac have been up in recent years, due to my own hypothesis that a lot of users who use iPod and especially iPhone have been getting more acquainted with the interface that is claimed to be user-friendly. Thanks to that, Apple's sales of PC and Mac are up, leaving the business unit alone, I'm not sure if they can reach the sales of $22bln for Mac FY 2010. (Source: Apple keynote for new Macbook air, iLife,...)

In late June 2007, Apple introduced a 'revolution' in Phone, the iPhone (which has come to iPhone 3G, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4 just from 2007 to 2010). iPhone has been a huge success for Apple so far in the smartphone industry. However, success in one phase of the technology life cycle does not guarantee success in the next phase (Stoelhorst, Building Resource-based Competitive Advantage Over a Technology Life Cycle). The thinking becomes more interesting when assessing which phase of the life cycle the smartphone industry is in (refer to the four phases in Stoelhorst's). Will Apple maintain its competitive advantage when the industry comes to the next phase? Or will Apple's start with the iPhone for the smartphone industry end up like the Apple I for the computer industry in 1980s? The question is to be observed in the next 5, 10 or 20 years. Yet, over the next writing, I would like to look and analyse Apple from a resource-based view on its competencies and its capabilities.