Saturday, December 19, 2009

Books to read 'bout Financials

and Ben Bernanke, Time's Person of the Year.

Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Pigou club

An eminent economist who wasn't in favor of laissez-faire. Yet, the government should only do something or is seen as a vital role to do something after Friedman was proved to be incorrect.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy

Book I have to read.

Schumpeter's theory is that the success of capitalism will lead to a form of corporatism and a fostering of values hostile to capitalism, especially among intellectuals. The intellectual and social climate needed to allow entrepreneurship to thrive will not exist in advanced capitalism; it will be replaced by socialism in some form. There will not be a revolution, but merely a trend in parliaments to elect social democratic parties of one stripe or another. He argued that capitalism's collapse from within will come about as democratic majorities vote for the creation of a welfare state and place restrictions upon entrepreneurship that will burden and destroy the capitalist structure. Schumpeter emphasizes throughout this book that he is analyzing trends, not engaging in political advocacy. In his vision, the intellectual class will play an important role in capitalism's demise. The term "intellectuals" denotes a class of persons in a position to develop critiques of societal matters for which they are not directly responsible and able to stand up for the interests of strata to which they themselves do not belong. One of the great advantages of capitalism, he argues, is that as compared with pre-capitalist periods, when education was a privilege of the few, more and more people acquire (higher) education. The availability of fulfilling work is however limited and this, coupled with the experience of unemployment, produces discontent. The intellectual class is then able to organise protest and develop critical ideas.

In Schumpeter's view, socialism will ensure that the production of goods and services is directed towards meeting the authentic needs of people and will overcome some innate tendencies of capitalism such as conjecture fluctuation, unemployment and waning acceptance of the system.

(Wiki)

Online Optimization

and a link with portfolio management.

http://www.bestechvideos.com/2008/12/05/adaptive-algorithms-for-online-optimization

The first is what I do, but in perfect condition. The later is what I learned at school. Thought of it a few months ago on how to apply portfolio mgmt technique on traffic and optimization.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

The Lords of Finance

another book worth reading of human behavior in their own world.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Monday, October 12, 2009

"It is part of the merging social science"

Nobel Prize 2009 for economics are for: Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson, one political scientist and one economist.
The challenge is to design institutions, mechanisms and incentives that move us in the right direction.


Economics is not really fundamentally about markets, but about resource allocation and distribution problems. Markets appear because they operate effectively to handle a subset of these resource allocation challenges.

And Andrew Lo, who proposes the adaptive market hypothesis says EMH is not incorrect, it's just a part of a puzzle.

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

philosophy and economics

There should be a correlation between these two.

A study can be carried out to examine the link between different philosophies on the economy and personal income. i.e., G.W. in the Fountainhead who can sell his soul or those who are students of Ayn Rand versus Socrates, Des Cartes, Spinoza,... and Buddhists.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

living in the time of financial crisis

Wish I could fly to NY to attend the discussion. The fee for student is ok but I am no longer. On the other hand, I am working, but not in the financial industry now. Working in an Internet company, although small has made me realize how much powerful it is in the arms of these guys, in the actual and virtual world.

But will I be out, or in with Finance, where I thought I would be?

This month, people have been talking about the event after one year since Lehman collapsed.
Wall Street's new shape

In the end, if it's not money, it would be also hard to tell what will benefit the society if you're not in an NGO (and do NGOs bring benefit?)

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Karl Marx was prescient but philosophy is eternal, anyway

An article to review and for me to develop my own observation and opinion further. Click on the title to follow the link for those who have an Economist account. Or some excerpts from the article I copy below. The small texts are my ideas and opinions but as a very junior, I will come here later, days, weeks or years to edit for myself.

Nevertheless, all politicians should have the knowledge of culture, of philosophy which is the root of culture before playing on the international stage and make intervention of human right in other countries and cultures, in my own opinion.

As a system of government, communism is dead or dying. As a system of ideas, its future looks secure.

WHEN Soviet communism fell apart towards the end of the 20th century, nobody could say that it had failed on a technicality. For decades past, in the Soviet Union and its satellite countries, any allusion to the avowed aims of communist doctrine—equality, freedom from exploitation, true justice—had provoked only bitter laughter. Finally, when the monuments were torn down, statues of Karl Marx were defaced as contemptuously as those of Lenin and Stalin.

Karl Marx was defaced because communism, which Lenin who followed Marx picked up and built the government was done in Europe, where people's freedom, democracy, humanity were rooted and have been the subjects for thousands years. Contrary to the Western values, Eastern values, which are Hinduism, Confucianism for examples. Norms, values, moralities in the East nowadays still can be seen to have had a lot of effect from Confucianism. People, I believe should follow the society where they are living, with some of the values of the society they have the root. But those who keep the root I don't think get along with the environment they are living. It is self-struggle to keep the best of values from different cultures. Confucianism, after all are a few values which can be exchanged or altered if we found other values better.

Marx and communism could have been used as socialism once the world seeks equality. But that is an ideal condition. Marx and communism can be indeed, applied to China, Vietnam, Asian countries where people are born and are raised to follow the rules.


People in the West, their judgment not impaired by having lived in the system Marx inspired, mostly came to a more dispassionate view. Marx had been misunderstood, they tended to feel. The communism of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union was a perversion of his thought. What happened in those benighted lands would have appalled Marx as much as it appals us. It has no bearing on the validity of his ideas.

Because people in the West, from Socrates time have a different view of learning, teaching and acknowledge the world. Socrates taught people by putting questions to them and make them realize themselves that they did not know a thing. To him, a true insight can only be gained by the individual. Again, values should come from the true self and that individual's insight once he/she has the ability to know what's right and what's wrong. The insight do not need to come from the society (but since it's not easy at all to know what are right or wrong, a lot choose to follow social norms.) However, especially in developed society, when every one has their own values, should the following be necessity after the individual has gained education, knowledge and perception to make decisions and bear responsibility for that?

(P.S: Socrates himself was a true philosopher to know that he knew nothing.
)


Indeed, it is suggested, Marx was right about a good many things—about a lot of what is wrong with capitalism, for instance, about globalisation and international markets, about the business cycle, about the way economics shapes ideas. Marx was prescient; that word keeps coming up.



Adam Smith, one might say, stands in relation to liberal capitalism, a comparatively successful economic order, roughly where Marx stands in relation to socialism. Smith is way out in front—interesting, given that Marx saw himself as an economist first and foremost. Elsewhere in the social sciences and humanities, the reverse is true. Smith is rarely seen, as you might expect, though in fact there is far more in Smith than just economics; whereas from Marx and his expositors and disciples it seems there is no escape. It is the breadth of Marx's continuing influence, especially as contrasted with his strange irrelevance to modern economics, that is so arresting.


Still, four things seem crucial, and most of the rest follows from these. First, Marx believed that societies follow laws of motion simple and all-encompassing enough to make long-range prediction fruitful. Second, he believed that these laws are exclusively economic in character: what shapes society, the only thing that shapes society, is the “material forces of production”. Third, he believed that these laws must invariably express themselves, until the end of history, as a bitter struggle of class against class. Fourth, he believed that at the end of history, classes and the state (whose sole purpose is to represent the interests of the ruling class) must dissolve to yield a heaven on earth.

View of an philosopher. The first point perhaps shows that Marx was a person who had a fixed view about things or in another word, had vision toward things which can happen. The second views shows him as a materialist. The third view: class struggle which will remain for a long time in human history. 4th view: idealism which is the purpose of philosophy, seeking something eternal.

Aspects of his thought do impress. However, his assorted sayings about the reach of the global market—a favourite proof that “Marx was prescient”—are not in fact the best examples. The 19th century was an era of globalisation, and Marx was only one of very many who noticed. The accelerating global integration of the past 30 years merely resumes a trend that was vigorously in place during Marx's lifetime, and which was subsequently interrupted in 1914.

Marx's ability of foreseeing the future in economics, capitalism.

Marx was much more original in envisaging the awesome productive power of capitalism. He saw that capitalism would spur innovation to a hitherto-unimagined degree. He was right that giant corporations would come to dominate the world's industries (though not quite in the way he meant). He rightly underlined the importance of economic cycles (though his accounts of their causes and consequences were wrong).

... the things Marx most deplored: private property, liberal political rights and the market.

The core idea that economic structure determines everything has been especially pernicious. According to this view, the right to private property, for instance, exists only because it serves bourgeois relations of production. The same can be said for every other right or civil liberty one finds in society. The idea that such rights have a deeper moral underpinning is an illusion. Morality itself is an illusion, just another weapon of the ruling class.

But property right has been proved to be necessary for development. Refer to Alan Greenspan, Ayn Rand.

... Never ask what a painter, playwright, architect or philosopher thought he was doing. You know before you even glance at his work what he was really doing: shoring up the ruling class.

Marxist thinking is also deeply Utopian—another influential trait. The “Communist Manifesto”, despite the title, was not a programme for government: it was a programme for gaining power, or rather for watching knowledgeably as power fell into one's hands.

He did once say this much: “In communist society, where nobody has one exclusive sphere of activity...society regulates the general production and thus makes it possible for me to do one thing today and another tomorrow, to hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening, criticise after dinner, just as I have in mind, without ever becoming hunter, herdsman or critic.”

Again, would people who are very fixed often like to be so spontaneous?

And anti-globalists have inherited more from Marx besides this. Note the self-righteous anger, the violent rhetoric, the willing resort to actual violence (in response to the “violence” of the other side), the demonisation of big business, the division of the world into exploiters and victims, the contempt for piecemeal reform, the zeal for activism, the impatience with democracy, the disdain for liberal “rights” and “freedoms”, the suspicion of compromise, the presumption of hypocrisy (or childish naivety) in arguments that defend the market order.

Anti-globalism has been aptly described as a secular religion. So is Marxism: a creed complete with prophet, sacred texts and the promise of a heaven shrouded in mystery. Marx was not a scientist, as he claimed. He founded a faith. The economic and political systems he inspired are dead or dying. But his religion is a broad church, and lives on.



Religion remains eternal, which ppl who have faced a lot of changed or they themselves change a lot do need.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Perpignan - Port Bou - Barcelona

Equality is hard to attained unless children receive good care and equal education.

Being with unknown people are sometimes nice and sometimes not. To women, it's better to have a companion during the journeys.
Being with someone does not mean you are limited to see the world. Being accompanied can enhance the opportunity to discover the world.

Safety should only be expected to a certain extent, or feeling if you see yourself as a traveler.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

still a Depression to be expected?

Despite the rise in the stock exchange and people's thought that the economy is on the way of recovery, still it appears uncertain (to me). The figures do not show good signs. Are people deluding themselves at the moment?

Martin Wolf on the recession and the Great Depression

Sunday, May 31, 2009

Are u in favor of Ayn Rand?



in her politic, economic ideas and her opinion toward life and sharing.

We have songs for everything!



Love it!

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Saturday, May 09, 2009

Capital inflows in emerging markets

Capital inflows can overwhelm the domestic financial system, resulting in macroeconomic overheating as well as imprudent lending and borrowing activities at the microlevel. Studies of banking crises show that many have occurred after periods of high liquidity.

The financial systems in emerging economies also include institutions that are not as yet able to deal with major increases in capital inflows. As such, some of them make bad decisions, often with significantly negative results for them and for the system as a whole.

The unfortunate irony is that countries may end up actually worse off after a period of sudden large capital inflows. At first, this sounds counterintuitive. After all, these inflows are beneficial inflows. Surely, at worst, the countries will simply be no better off. How can they be worse off?
A recent IMF study has shown that the risks of developing countries’ winding up worse off after experiencing large sudden capital inflows are particularly elevated for countries that run large current account deficits. The reason is that the surge in capital inflows enables a set of activities that are inconsistent with the countries’ fundamentals. As such, the economies’ underlying vulnerabilities increase. These risks are especially acute for those countries with weak banking systems and inadequate supervision and regulation.


(From When markets collide)

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Monday, April 27, 2009

Personality test

Click to view my Personality Profile page

(Following another QA, Do Quoc Anh's blog.)

I share this test on Facebook to test if there would appear this information on people's profiles. I expect there will be and the results will be different from the result from ppl who might take this from this site. The number of people who will take this test I doubt, will be more if I put my own result on Facebook rather than sharing only the link.

Just keeping it here for myself and for few interested. Cheers!

Travel with the Dow

It's cool, it's thrilling in the so-called 'security'. Enjoy!

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Vietnam and China on The Economist

(Click on the link above)

The issue has arisen a lot of dicussions and angers among Vietnamese, especially the community of bloggers (Everywhere Land is an example). Now it appears on The Economist, April 25th 2009.

'With foreign direct investment 40% lower in the first quarter of 2009 than it was a year before-and most rich nations short of cash-Vietnam needs Chinese money now more than ever.' So will Vietnam be a colony, in one way or another way, in the end? The issue is to which country it chooses to be a colony to!

A sour conclusion: 'But reality is that in straitened economic times, beggars cannot be choosers'.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

The Crisis and Emerging Markets


Some statistics prepared for CIB class to put together with the report from the Financial Stability Report April 2009, first chapter.


Large outflows experienced in 2008 from emerging economies. It is predicted to still in their outflow in the coming years.




Emerging economies (will) suffer badly from global crisis, especially exporters in East Asia. Take a look at this article.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Summer Reading List

Came across this post a long time ago, by Greg Mankiw. Post here again to remind me reading one or some of these in the summer. Would die if there's nothing to do while others will leave me or get occupied by some other things. :)

  • Milton Friedman, Capitalism and Freedom
  • Robert Heilbroner, The Worldly Philosophers
  • Paul Krugman, Peddling Prosperity
  • Steven Landsburg, The Armchair Economist
  • P.J. O'Rourke, Eat the Rich
  • Burton Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street
  • Avinash Dixit and Barry Nalebuff, Thinking Strategically
  • Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, Freakonomics
  • John McMillan, Reinventing the Bazaar
  • William Breit and Barry T. Hirsch, Lives of the Laureates

Hanoi stays in the first place for searching 'blog'

Follow this article, Google Trends is used to see the trend of blog searching. The results displayed are all over the world.


Rankings in regions and in languages



Google Trends uses IP address information from the server logs to make a best guess about where queries originated. Language information is determined by the language version of the Google site where the search originated.



From seeing trend and analyzing figures on a daily basis, a lot of things can be done to project (and prevent) some future events.

'Fluctuations in the frequency with which people search for certain words or phrases online can improve the accuracy of the econometric models', argues Hyunyoung Choi and as Alan Greenspan's work in his early career. (He's not popular with the belief that the market is right and can self-correct at this moment. Yet there are always something to be learnt irrespective of right or wrong.)

Saturday, April 18, 2009

American banks' liquidity ratios

American banks like Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JP Morgan are posting positive profit. Below are some of my findings in the thesis about Bank Liquidity Risk Management. Looking at the ratios of WFC back in September 2008, there could be a rational hope that WFC would be doing well.

Graphs were drawn based on figures from the Board of Governor of the Federal Reserve taken from November 2008.


Core deposit on the balance sheet of Citigroup has been very low since 2005 yet there was only problem to be seen when it came to the instability in the market.



Liquid assets comprises of trading assets, securities and papers, which could also explain one of the main sources of income in JP Morgan, Citi... who are active in buying and selling these papers.



The gap between the red and blue columns can be a measure in liquidity risk. And look at the red column, net loans and leases over core deposits of Citi!



(Non-core funding dependece = non-core liabilities - short-term investments/ long-term assets)

Again, Citi with a very high non-core funding dependence, the ratio to measure the degree to which banks fund long-term assets with non-core funding.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Some figures on Money Laundering

(Prepared for CIB class)

Scale of Money Laundering: 1,500 - 2,850 bln USD each year ( around 20% GDP of the US)

Overview by country:


Countries active in ML by rank order:
- Luxembourg
- United States
- Switzerland
- Cayman Islands
- Austria
- Netherlands
- Lichtenstein
- Vatican
- United Kingdom
- Singapore
- Hongkong
- Bermuda

Countries potential for ML:
- Bahamas
- Cayman Island
- Cook Islan
- Dominica
- Israel

Types of financial instruments reported on the SAR

Many types of financial instruments were involved in the suspicious activity reported on the SAR-SFs (Securities & Futures Industries)

Types Of Financial Instruments Reported

SAR-SFs

Percentage of
Total SAR-SFs
Reviewed

Cash or Equivalent

276

49.7

Other

101

18.2

Money Market Mutual Fund

45

8.1

Stocks

37

6.7

None

35

6.3

Mutual Fund

33

5.9

Bonds/Notes

25

4.5

Other Non-Securities

13

2.3

Other Securities

6

1.1

Commercial Paper

1

0.2

Warrants

1

0.2

Foreign Currencies

1

0.2






Thursday, January 08, 2009

The Leadership Code

Five Rules to Lead (by Dave Ulrich, Norm Smallwood and Kate Sweetman)

1. Shape the future: be a strategist
2. Make things happen: be an executor
3. Engage today's talent: be a talent manager
4. Build the next generation: be a capital human developer
5. Invest in yourself: work on your personal proficiency