On APEC event

From FT:

Vietnam’s economy last year grew at 8.4 per cent to $53bn, ranking it as the second-fastest growing only to China among the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum’s 21 members.

“Vietnam is an exciting place. It’s a place with an enormous future,” said Mr Bush, even as the House of Representatives slowed that progress this month by failing to pass a bill to approve permanent normal trade relations with Vietnam.

Mike Green, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said: “Other than Singapore, Vietnam is probably the Southeast Asian nation with the clearest vision of their own strategic position and national interests – particularly vis-a-vis China. It makes them an increasingly important partner for Washington.”

He added: “While Vietnam is far from being a democracy, they are taking important steps on religious freedom and economic reform.”

From AP (Yahoo Finance):

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) -- Top business leaders attending a Pacific Rim economic conference on Friday praised communist Vietnam for its stunning progress in reforming its economy a day after U.S. companies struck a flurry of investment deals worth more than $1.6 billion.
"Vietnam has demonstrated to the world its capacity for quantum leaps," said Craig Mundie, chief research and strategy officer for Microsoft Corp.

"It's clear that the government has recognized that broad-based reform and economic liberalization are essential to Vietnam's integration into the global economy," Mundie told more than 1,000 participants at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum's "CEO Summit."

Hanoi's role as host to the annual APEC summit, which brings together President Bush and 20 other leaders for a weekend meeting, gives Vietnam a rare chance to showcase its transformation from a war-ravaged backwater to a fast-growing exporter.

More than 20 years of "doi moi" market-oriented reforms have made Vietnam APEC's fastest expanding economy after China, with growth racing ahead at a 7.5 percent clip.

The CEO gathering comes fresh on the heels of two of the biggest business developments to hit Vietnam in years -- its approval for membership in the World Trade Organization and Intel Corp.'s announcement last week that it will invest $1 billion in a chip plant in Ho Chi Minh City.

More deals were announced Thursday. Energy company AES Corp. signed an agreement with state-owned Vietnam Coal & Minerals Corp., or Vinacomin, to build a coal-fired power plant at a cost of $1.4 billion, Vinacomin said. Arlington, Va.-based AES will contribute 90 percent of the capital, with the Vietnamese partner providing 10 percent.

In another deal, state-owned Vietnam National Shipping Lines, or Vinalines, agreed to form a $100 million container terminal joint venture with Seattle-based SSA Marine.

And Vietnam's Truong Thinh Co. said it had sealed a US$140-million contract with California-based NRG Resources Inc.

Executives lauded Vietnam's effort to amend its laws to conform with WTO rules as it prepares to join the Geneva-based trade group next month.

"We see great growth potential in this market," said Michael Ducker, president of FedEx Express International.

Joining the WTO "represents the emergence of Vietnam towards an economy that is very competitive," said Scott Price, chief executive of DHL Express Asia-Pacific, which on Thursday said it was investing US$14 million in Vietnam through a joint venture to upgrade its facilities and vehicles in the country.

Salvaging the current Doha round of negotiations toward a global agreement on dismantling trade barriers has been a major focus of the APEC gathering, with the 21 members pledging to consider concessions on farm trade that left the talks in a deadlock in July.

The former head of the World Trade Organization, Supachai Panitchpakdi, on Friday urged trade negotiators to lower their demands and take small steps in a bid to break the deadlock.

"I don't think the (world) can afford to stand by and let the Doha round go down the drain," Supachai, now heads of the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development, told the more than 1,000 business executives.

"So let's do quiet diplomacy. Let's achieve a little bit and then move on, achieve a little bit and then move on," he said. "Development is the middle name of the Doha agenda, so don't shortchange the whole round of negotiations of development."

Spurred by exhortations from APEC, the WTO's 149 members met Thursday in Geneva for the first time in four months to discuss the possibility of resuming talks.

"Clearly, business and industry want the removal of obstacles, so with the Doha round, business is saying, 'Yeah, we're ready. We're just waiting for governments to get their act together,'" said DHL's Price.

While executives say regulations still slow down business in Vietnam, foreign investment is growing as the economy opens up.

Vietnam's thinnest times came after the Vietnam War ended in 1975 and the communists united the country. Cut off by an economic embargo, the economy stagnated under a rigid, centrally planned system. People lined up to wait for rice and other goods and faced police action if they sold anything on the free market.

The country still faces daunting obstacles, however, in building up infrastructure and training its workers for the newly capitalist-style economy.

"New challenges from terrorism, pandemics, natural disasters and technological inequality threaten the sustainability of regional prosperity," said Vu Tien Loc, president of the APEC CEO summit and chairman of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry. "We believe that worldwide prosperity can only be achieved through shared opportunities and shared development."

Vietnam's booming stock exchange attracts attention at APEC summit - article from IHT 14/11

The market is emblematic of Vietnam's overall economy: energetic, fast-growing and still in the early stages of its development. It poses greater risks to investors than a more advanced economy, but also the promise of great returns.

"You'd have to go quite a long way to find a stock market that's grown 10 times in 10 months, even though it started from a very small base," said Dominic Scriven of Dragon Capital, which manages an US$860 million investment fund in Vietnam. "And it probably will have grown 15 times by the end of the year."

When it opened six years ago, the market was the laughingstock of Southeast Asia. Few companies were listed, and foreign investors kept their distance. But it has taken off in the last couple of years, attracting the attention of investment firms such as Credit Suisse and Citigroup.

"Vietnam is beginning to deliver on a decade of promise," a recent Merrill Lynch report said.

Vietnam has approved a new securities law that Scriven called "a huge leap forward." Effective Jan. 1, it will clarify investment rules and bring more transparency to the market, though still not as much as in developed countries.

Vietnam's agreement on banking in the accession to WTO

Vietnam currently limits foreign banks to a minorirty shareholding position of 49%, but allows bank branches. Vietnam only allows foreign securities companies to open representative offices. Our (US) WTO bilateral market access agreement with Vietnam includes the following improvements:

As of April 1, 2007, U.S. and other foreign banks will be able to establish 100% foreign-invented subsidiaries. As Vietnamese legal entities, these subsidiaries will receive non-discriminatory ("national") treatment upon accession. U.S> banks will be able to establish a 100% foreign-invested bank subsidiary, take unlimited local currency deposits from legal entities, and issue credit cards.

As of date of Vietnam's accession, foreign securities firms will be able to open joint ventures with up to 49% foreign ownership. After five years, foreigners will be able to own 100% of securities firms and will be able to branch into Vietnam for some securities avtivities (asset management, advisory, and settlement and cleairng services).

Foreign-invested firms established in Vietnam will be afforded national treatments, across all other financial services sub-sectors.

Cross-border market access commitments will be comparable, or superior, to those of OECD countries (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development).

The WTO is about to welcome an "non-market economy" into its ranks

The article on The Economist (4th November) begins with the joining of Ukraine at the beginning of this year into the WTO. "That might surprise many Ukranians, who were under the impression they had been living with free enterprise since prices were deregulated in 1991."

The WTO is built on the principle that members will treat each other alike. But as one price of entry Vietnam agreed to remain on a list of so-called "non-market economies", alongside China and several other WTO members (Soviet members). This stigma has one practical consequence. It makes it harder for Vietnam to defend itself against the charge of dumping. Into a non-market economy, America's Department of Commerce argues, prices are not set by supply and demand so they cannot be trusted, Instead, it comes up with is own calculation of "normal value" based on costs in other "surrogate" countries.

America is Vietnam's biggest market and one of the more prolific users of anti-dumping duties. But it is not the only place to brand its trading partners as unmarket-like. Last month, the EU confirmed that Vietnam was dumping leather shoes, based on what it costs Brazil to make them. Last year it was imposed duties on Vietnamese bicycles, after comparing them with the costs in Mexico.
The most notorious case remains, however, Vietnam catfish or "basa" as they are now labelled. It reached the tax impose of 37-64% after calculating what Vietnam's fillets would cost if they were reared on a fish farm in the region of Bangladesh, using water bought in India, transported by Bangladesh truckers, with the labour purchased in Vietnam.
What Vietnam must do to shake off the "non-market" label? The EU, the Americans and others each have their own requirements. America wants to see the removal of price-fixing and currency controls, even more foreign investment, free wage bargaining, and limited government ownership.
But "the economic logic is invariably something of a facade". The only criterion that really matters is that America's retailers, who like Vietnam's cheap merchandise, lobby harder than its garment-makers and catfish farmers who hate it. It is mostly those with something to fear from open markets who accuse other countries of falling short of them.

6 dạng rủi ro khi mua bán cổ phiếu trên thị trường OTC

Trên thị trường OTC các loại cổ phiếu đang giao dịch phần lớn là của các ngân hàng, công ty chứng khoán, công ty bảo hiểm, nhà máy điện..., những công ty không những có quy mô vốn điều lệ lớn, tổng giá trị cổ phiếu đang giao dịch cao, mà còn thường xuyên phải tăng vốn điều lệ theo chiến lược kinh doanh của mình. Tuy nhiên, người đầu tư trên thị trường này nên chú ý đến những dạng rủi ro sau đây:

Một là, tranh chấp hay thiệt hại về quyền mua cổ phiếu mới tăng vốn. Một trong những kỳ vọng lớn nhất về lợi ích của người mua cổ phiếu là quyền mua cổ phiếu phát hành tăng vốn. Đây là một khoản thu nhập, một khoản lợi lớn của người sở hữu cổ phiếu. Nhiều loại cổ phiếu giá giao dịch trên thị trường OTC cao gấp 8 lần đến 10 lần, thậm chí 12 - 14 lần mệnh giá gốc.

Tuy nhiên, thông thường trước khi phát hành cổ phiếu tăng vốn, công ty tiến hành chốt danh sách cổ đông. Tại thời điểm đó, những ai sở hữu cổ phiếu nằm trong danh sách cổ đông của HĐQT sẽ được mua thêm cổ phiếu mới theo tỷ lệ được ấn định dựa trên số cổ phiếu đang sở hữu.

Với những nhà đầu tư mới, người mua cổ phiếu mới trong giai đoạn giao thời, hoặc khi danh sách cổ đông đã được chốt, nếu không biết, tiền đã thanh toán cho người chuyển nhượng, mặc dù cổ phiếu mình đã nắm giữ, nhưng chưa làm xong thủ tục chuyển nhượng, nên mất quyền mua. Quyền mua cổ phiếu mới vẫn thuộc về người chuyển nhượng, trong khi người chuyển nhượng đã bán cổ phiếu của mình đi rồi theo giá thị trường tại thời điểm đó.

Hai là, tranh chấp hay thiệt hại về cổ tức. Cổ tức của công ty được chia cho cổ đông dựa trên số lượng cổ phần cổ đông đang nắm giữ. Rủi ro là ở chỗ, khi mua cổ phiếu, người được chuyển nhượng không nắm bắt được thông tin, không thỏa thuận rõ ràng trong hợp đồng chuyển nhượng. Do đó người mua mặc dù nắm giữ cổ phiếu đúng tên mình rồi, nhưng không nhận được cổ tức.

Ba là, rủi ro trong mua bán cổ phiếu chưa được chuyển nhượng. Có cổ phiếu theo quy định nội bộ công ty sau 1 năm mới được chuyển nhượng, nhưng nhiều nhà đầu tư không nắm được thông tin, mua loại cổ phiếu đó.

Và trong thời hạn 1 năm chưa làm được thủ tục chuyển nhượng, thì các quyền lợi về quyền mua thêm cổ phiếu tăng vốn, chia cổ tức..., vẫn thuộc về người đứng tên sở hữu cổ phiếu, còn người đã bỏ tiền ra mua, đang nắm giữ cổ phiếu thì bị chiếm đoạt mất quyền lợi.

Bốn là, rủi ro trong mua bán cổ phiếu ở thời điểm phát hành. Loại cổ phiếu này trong giới mua bán trên thị trường OTC còn gọi là cổ phiếu cũ và cổ phiếu mới, tức là thời điểm phát hành, kèm theo đó là quyền lợi mà nhà đầu tư có được: cổ tức, cổ phiếu thưởng, quyền mua cổ phiếu.

Bởi vì, thông thường các công ty căn cứ vào năm phát hành cổ phiếu để phân phối quyền lợi cho cổ đông. Người sở hữu cổ phiếu chỉ được hưởng lợi ích tương ứng với số tháng mà cổ phiếu đó đã phát hành. Bởi vậy bỏ tiền ra mua cổ phiếu cùng với giá mua như nhau, nhưng quyền lợi giữa cổ phiếu cũ và cổ phiếu mới là khác nhau. Nhà đầu tư cần hết sức chú ý chi tiết này.

Năm là, rủi ro trong mua bán cổ phiếu khi biến động giá. Thông thường để chắc ăn và "nắm đằng chuôi", người bán luôn yêu cầu người mua cổ phiếu phải đặt cọc tiền một tỷ lệ nào đó. Khi đó nếu giá cổ phiếu giảm, buộc người mua phải mua số cổ phiếu với giá đã cam kết, nếu không bị mất tiền đặt cọc.

Ngược lại, khi giá lên, người bán có xu hướng đánh tháo và dễ dàng đánh tháo, còn số tiền đã đặt cọc không phải lúc nào và trường hợp nào cũng lấy lại ngay được.

Sáu là, rủi ro trong giao dịch nhận chuyển nhượng quyền mua. Trong các đợt phát hành thêm cổ phiếu mới để tăng vốn, cổ đông hiện hữu, cổ đông chiến lược, hay cán bộ nhân viên công ty được quyền mua cổ phiếu.

Khi đó, nhiều người do không huy động được tiền hoặc vì nhiều lý do khác, bán quyền mua cổ phiếu của mình. Giá bán quyền mua thường thấp hơn giá thị trường OTC thời điểm đó. Nhà đầu tư mới thấy giá thấp, hấp dẫn thường chấp nhận mua.

Nhưng từ khi nộp tiền để mua cổ phiếu cho đến khi nhận được cổ phiếu là cả một khoảng thời gian khá dài, nên đến khi nhận được cổ phiếu thì cổ phiếu vẫn đứng tên chủ sở hữu là người chuyển nhượng.

Khi đó, nếu giá cổ phiếu đứng nguyên, giảm, hay gặp phải người nghiêm túc, đứng đắn, thì công việc làm thủ tục chuyển nhượng không vấn đề gì. Trong trường hợp gặp phải người không trọng chữ tín, dễ dàng bị đánh tháo và hứa hẹn trả lại số tiền trước kia đã nhận kèm với lãi suất tiền gửi ngân hàng.

(From Vietnamese stock market news)

Vietnam - Good morning at last

(From an article on The Economist August 5th-11th 2006)

Recently, there have been a few articles on The Economist, a very famous newspaper about Vietnam. In its "Asia" part, there are a lot of articles about Thailand and China of course. Yet, as a Vietnamese, I'm attracted to those articles about Vietnam and most of the time feeling proud to read about good things in Vietnam through Western eyes.

Here are some highlights in the article.

”An economic boom is accompanied by remarkable success in getting rid of poverty and raising life expectancy.”

Vietnam is going to host the Asia-Pacific economic summit in November. That meeting will be taken place in Tu Liem, Hanoi's south-western edge. The infrastructure is described: "… the futuristic conference center, with a distinctive wavy glass roof”, “ a huge five-star hotel is getting a final coat of paint. Along Tu Liem’s broad, four-lane avenues, some apartments are already occupied…”, “ between the building sited, cows and buffalo still graze in what was open pasture only recently.”

Since 1990, Vietnam’s exports have increases faster than China’s and shows no signs of slackening. VN is now competing in Brazilians as a second coffee exporter. It is ramping up its exports of everything from shrimps to shoes. It is the largest exporter of pepper and aims soon to overtake Thailand in rice. It is even selling tea to India.

Foreigners are also growing and gaining fast. Intel has just decided to build a $650m microchip plant in Ho Chi Minh City. Agriculture’s share of economic output is continuing to shrink from 25% in 2000 to 21% last year and may be down to 15% in 2010.

“Vietnam’s objective is to become a modest industrial nation by 2020. Of course, other Asian countries’ leaders declare similar objectives. The difference is Vietnam’s rulers seem to mean it.”

Vietnam has overtaken China, India and Philipines and only slightly after Indonesia in getting rid of poverty. VN has done better than Thailand and other richer countries in raising life expectancy and infant morality since the 1990s. The percentage of secondary-school age is up about a third since 1990, overtaking India, China and Indonesia.

Good times, bad times

“Vietnam is on a roll and its prospects look good. But much could still go wrong. As Vietnam is going to join WTO it is becoming more vulnerable to volatile commodity prices and fickle bond-market investors, whose gyrations are largely outside its control. The recent export surge has been helped by strong global demand and high prices for the things Vietnam sells, from rice to crude oil, but a world recession or an economic bust in China could cause a big slowdown. The government is racing to build enough power stations, roads and railways to keep the economy moving. Any delays in these would spell trouble.”

If the communist government fails to reduce corruption or produce jobs for more than 1m young Vietnamese and the 1m villagers the country’s social cohesion and sense of purpose would be in danger. That makes is vital to accelerate the government’s program to restructure and sell thousands of state-owned firms. The private sector provides most of the growth in jobs and exports but would do better still if it was not crowded out by the public sector.

Coming back here after one and half a year

After trying Moveable Type, Type Pad and Word Press for another idea of blog, I decided to come back here. I had this blog one and half year ago but with different purpose and I didn't share it to the public. I have now my own space on Yahoo!360 to share some thoughts and feelings with my friends but not set to public.

Opening some pages on Economist this morning to find "Economists' blogs" with blogs by DeLong, Greg Mankiw,... I came up with the idea for this blog again. This blog is now recreated for putting articles I came over and hopefully my own articles in the field of economics (finance, stock market, business,...) and some other fields which I'm interested in. I will write the sources of the articles I post here for sure, some will be just "copy and paste" but at least, they're what I gain in the fields I am interested.

I don't know for how long and how I will take care of this blog but I'll try, for my study.